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Author Topic: 2014-15 Long Range Weather  (Read 358 times)
Tommy T
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« on: October 17, 2014, 12:59:53 PM »

My experience over about 15 years of watching the three month climate prediction numbers suggests strongly that the season averages for the winter are pretty accurate by October.

Currently, the forecasts for Northern New England and for the Wasatch are about the same:  strong likelihood of average percipatation and likelihood of above average temperatures for December into April (certainty decreases with time).  That translates as "be observant and go when there is snow" in New England and "just fine, thank you again" in Utah.  Colorado is probably a good bet for an average season all round and you can choose some pretty high altitude resorts, like Breckenridge, to ease the risk of warm weather.  California might be short on moisture for the season but its variety of areas and geography is such that if you are flexible you can almost always find some that are in good shape.  Save Taos for February and early March and, as always, avoid Snowshoe, West Virginia unless you live within an hour's drive.

These climate predictions are based on the expected behavior of major, long-term atmospheric systems such as the El Nino/La Nino occilation and long term trends (10, 15 and 30 year patterns), and various persistent anomolies.  This stuff is pushed into various models and the forecasters guess at what the results mean.  The "average, above average, below average" guesses are based on a consensous of the forecasters.

DISCLAIMERS: 1:  Most important:  this poster is a retired financial attorney whose understanding of the underlying science is nil;  2:  "Average" is an almost useless concept without knowledge of the underlying distributions: the average of 31 and 33 is 32; the average of 11 and 53 is also 32;  3:  Read Mark Twain on the subject of weather; 4: Wouldn't you really rather spend the winter wind surfing in Tahiti?

Tommy T.

Only put off until tomorrow what you are willing to die having left undone.
                                                                             -- Pablo Picasso
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