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Author Topic: Avalanche Advisory For Tuckerman & Huntington Ravine  (Read 6026 times)
atruss
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« on: April 09, 2007, 04:22:51 PM »

Click here for a current AVI forecast
http://www.tuckerman.org/avalanche/
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atruss
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« Reply #1 on: April 01, 2008, 07:23:59 AM »

4/1/08

Interesting parts of the forecast:

The water also adds weight to slabs. If it makes it to the icy bed surface that exists it will begin to travel downhill on that, lubricating the interface between the slab and the bed surface. If this entire process occurs, an avalanche is soon to follow. Loose snow and thin slab avalanches are the most likely scenarios today, but we must address the bigger dragons that are in Tuckerman. Deep cold slabs still exist that did not avalanche in our most recent big cycle on Saturday. These are going to require more rain, melt and heat to penetrate into the snow to get them to avalanche than the slabs previously discussed. The warm weather is breaking down some of the tensile strength that is helping them stay put. While today's weather isn't ideal for waking these dragons, I will say that if one of them goes, it is going to be big. If today's weather was calling for more rain, I would be banging this drum a lot louder. Keep this in the front of your mind today if you plan on traveling in avalanche terrain. Slabs from Saturday's event exist in most locations around Tuckerman Ravine and are more sporadic in Huntington.

Today's spring like weather won't last for long. A cold front will move in this evening causing temperatures to plummet. We may even hear a few claps of thunder as it rolls through. Temperatures will tumble to 0 F (-18 C) tomorrow and winds are going to be impressive. They will bump up to 100 mph (161 kph) with higher gusts later today and exceed 115 mph (185 kph) overnight and into tomorrow. An upslope flow may give us some accumulating snow, which will be tomorrow's primary stability concern. The drop in temperatures will help stabilize our current snowpack creating an icy mass.

The Lion Head Winter Route is not one of our forecast areas but does have potential to produce avalanches as anchors have become covered and snowfields increase in size. I would put Boot Spur in this catagory.
Many of these suspect snowfields are well above average in size this season and recent storms continue to add complexity to the snowpack. Venturing off the marked trail quickly puts you in more significant avalanche terrain. ItĀ’s important to make your own avalanche stability assessments and use safe travel techniques when following this route. The Sherburne Ski Trail has full coverage from top to bottom.
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atruss
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« Reply #2 on: April 02, 2008, 08:01:32 AM »

4/2/08

Highlights of the forecast that is linked at the top of this thread:

Avi Rating: Low except in isolated pockets
After a day off yesterday, winter has returned to the mountains, rested and full of energy. Summit temperatures have dropped 36 degrees F from yesterday's high temperature of 40 F (5 C) and are expected to hover around 0 F (-18 C) for the rest of today. Winds will add to the excitement with forecasted speeds of 90 to 110 mph (144 to 177 kph) out of the west. This is a far cry from the wet and warm day we experienced yesterday. We ended up getting a fair amount of moisture over the past 24 hours, most of it falling after dark. The summit recorded 1" (2.54 cm) of liquid with a good soaking associated with a passing thunderstorm. We can't see too much this morning but I can tell that a relatively small avalanche came out of Dodge's Drop and the Little Headwall has blown out again. Since temperatures have fallen below freezing, we have had snow showers that have deposited a trace amount of new snow. These are expected to dry up later today. Cold temperatures have begun freezing the snowpack into a concrete like substance which is good for overall stability. The stability issues you need to focus on today are related to new pockets of snow that develop from recent snow showers and wind loading. I suspect the largest of these will be found in the Lip and Headwall. The forecast is calling for under an inch of new snow today. The more snow that falls, the larger these pockets will be. Keep an eye on the accumulation and adjust you plans if we end up squeezing more snow out of this air mass than forecasted as avalanche concerns will be greater.



Not good news about little headwall  Roll Eyes  But I bet you can ski to the far right of it and get past the blowout considering this year's amout of snow.
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Rage
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« Reply #3 on: April 02, 2008, 08:42:22 AM »

The rest sounds very promising.  I stoked just hope saturday's weather turns out alright.
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surf88
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« Reply #4 on: April 02, 2008, 12:49:54 PM »

I was talking with some one who had just come back from the ravine yesterday, and they were saying that: the avalanche debris has almost burried the connection cache.  I've never seen avalanche debris reach that far across the ravine floor before.
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David Howland
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« Reply #5 on: April 02, 2008, 01:32:41 PM »

I've heard that the connection cache has been buried multiple times this year, which apparently never happens. I'm looking forward to walking all the way up on snow. I'm thinking of bringing a sled up with me, to make the slide down easier. Idk what the rest of you self-respecting boarders and skiers would think of a bunch of sleds on the sherbie, though.
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atruss
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« Reply #6 on: April 02, 2008, 04:20:18 PM »

I personally wouldn't be pissed to see sledders as long as you guys were going in a downward direction, and not climbing back up post holing all over the place
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« Reply #7 on: April 02, 2008, 04:31:10 PM »

alrighty. Don't worry about postholing. I'll keep the little'uns in line.
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« Reply #8 on: April 04, 2008, 11:52:28 AM »

I was talking with some one who had just come back from the ravine yesterday, and they were saying that: the avalanche debris has almost burried the connection cache.  I've never seen avalanche debris reach that far across the ravine floor before.
This article says its only the third time its happened.

http://www.newhampshire.com/article.aspx?headline=Huge+avalanches+widen+Hillman%e2%80%99s+Highway&articleid=1792
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atruss
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« Reply #9 on: March 05, 2009, 02:22:10 PM »

It's interesting reading these old posts about last year around this time.

I also thought today's avi report was interesting as well

Seems like wind loading over the dust on crust is the biggest issue for today 3/5/09
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« Reply #10 on: March 05, 2009, 03:26:08 PM »

Last year was a heck of a snow year for the East Coast. When I was skiing yesterday we stopped for a break at a lean-to and
he was commenting on the little amount of snow on the roof compared to last year having close to 4 feet on the roof.  Shocked


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« Reply #11 on: March 08, 2009, 08:31:40 PM »

This year was a pretty average snowfall year, but the winter in itself was more like the style winter I remember when I was a kid.  And this is the first time I've been able to say that for a while. 
The thing about tux this year is that there has been a ton of loading, but there is a bed layer of crust that has been there since December that has pretty much released every new snow to the floor of the ravine.  There will definitely be snow in the bowl until July this year , but the crust layer will probably shorten the life span of the higher routes.
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atruss
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« Reply #12 on: March 09, 2009, 07:49:12 AM »

Didn't they just get rain last night, think that might help consolidate the layers once the freeze cycle happens?
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